Thursday, September 11, 2008
Intrade is a betting parlor for politics, in 2004 as tradesport it predicted the winner of the presidential race and 49 of the 50 States. Since the race became clearly Obama v. McCain Intrade favored Obama. It was about Obama 70 McCain 30 for quite a while but the numbers closed dramatically after the conventions. Since they are using real money intade normally reflects reality. Today for the first time intrade favors John McCain 51 to Obama 47. You can check it and track it at Real Clear Politics. This swing is remarkable and if you bought McCain early you can sell right now and almost double your money. If he wins you get paid $100. It is a relief that the market now believes (narrowly) McCain will win but anything can happen. We have to work, work work.