Here is a break down of the price of a contract for President Bush to win State by State as of 11 p.m. October 21, 2004. Perhaps more interesting than what the money on the overall race is saying is what the money bet on the State by State races reveals. You see,Tradesports.com also lets you buy contracts State by State (only for W. not for Kerry) so if you think W will win New York you can buy a contract indicating that out come and if he does win NY you get paid $100. You may buy that contract for around $5 on Tradesports Presidential election market. A Bush to win contract for Indiana or Alabama will cost you over $95. I applied the collective wisdom of the market to the electoral college by giving W the electoral college votes of any State where the Bush to win contract costs over $50 and Senator Kerry the electoral college votes of any State paying less $50. As of 11 O'clock PM Oct. 21. W wins 286 to 254.W can even lose the State selling closest to $50 but above $50, Iowa at $55 with 7 electoral votes and still win the Neccesary 270. Bush would win 279. I have posted the state by state again as of 11 PM EDT below:States Electors Tradesports R or D$to buy K ( W to win )Alabama 9 97 RAlaska 3 97 RArizona 10 91 RArkansas 6 84 RCalifornia 55 06 DColorado 9 82 RConnecticut 7 06 DDelaware 3 09 DDist. of Col. 3 02 DFlorida 27 64 RGeorgia 15 96 RHawaii 4 08 DIdaho 4 97 RIllinois 21 08 DIndiana 11 96 RIowa 7 51 RKansas 6 95 RKentucky 8 95 RLouisiana 9 94 RMaine 4 18 DMaryland 10 08 DMassachusetts 11 03 DMichigan 17 21 DMinnesota 19 38 DMississippi 6 98 RMissouri 11 84 RMontana 3 97 RNebraska 5 96 RNevada 5 77 RNew Hampshire 4 40 DNew Jersey 15 18 DNew Mexico 5 37 DNew York 31 05 DNorth Carolina 15 88 RNorth Dakota 3 98 ROhio 20 58 ROklahoma 7 97 ROregon 7 18 DPennsylvania 21 29 DRhode Island 4 4 DSouth Dakota 3 97 RTennessee 11 94 RTexas 34 98 RUtah 5 98 RVermont 3 05 DVirginia 13 89 RWashington 11 08 DWest Virginia 5 82 Risconsin 10 58 RWyoming 3 97 R(270 Votes are needed to win.) Total 538 W = 286 K = 252:
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